Opinions: Willow’s Quantum Echoes and their Aftershocks

We’ve witnessed some big quantum news in the past couple of days.

Google announced another Willow breakthrough: https://blog.google/technology/research/quantum-echoes-willow-verifiable-quantum-advantage/

The Trump administration are in talks with QC companies: https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-administration-talks-take-stakes-quantum-computing-firms-wsj-reports-2025-10-23/

Each of these may have an effect on the timeline of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer. I’m interested to hear everyone’s thoughts…

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Every day, quantum becomes more and more real.

No matter how badly people want to put their head in the sand and hope quantum progress isn’t happening, it’s impossible to ignore at this point.

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Yeap! It’s also important to separate two distinct events: the day a cryptographically relevant quantum computer actually comes online, and the day the world realizes one is coming.

The first is Q-day, but the second moment matters just as much (let’s call it OH-F**K day), the day the majority of the market wakes up to that inevitability.

Protocols need to harden themselves against both timelines. Markets and ecosystems move on sentiment way more than science. A credible/fake announcement, leaked milestone, opaque demonstration of quantum advantage will trigger a chain reaction well before the first real break happens.

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